Novel Takeaways

Mon Sep 21, 2026
refreshed 9:45 AM · Monday — three exits (BNO floor, FXY trail, RARE spent catalyst); campaign #1 re-cut as VST shares, CONDITIONAL

🟢 Market OPEN — quotes are live/near-live (Alpaca; free tier can lag ~15 min)

Three live EXIT signals fire and are ready to execute same-session — BNO (give-back floor $8.07 broken, verified by re-running the actual code, not reading it), FXY (trail breach) and RARE (catalyst resolved, trend broken). PBF/FRO/SOFI hold clean on unbreached rules. Zero NEW options ship today, and it's a legitimate STRUCTURE zero, not an edge-bar miss: MU's only cap-fitting Jan strike needs +45% just to break even (beyond the live analog's own +21.5% p90), and VST's Jan-15 150C — proposed by every seat this morning — is rejected on two independent grounds: it's the wrong vehicle class for a policy-flow catalyst under the CONSTITUTION's 9/18 addendum (shares+stop is mandated, not an option), and its own live tail ratio fell from 0.83 to 0.67 (REJECT) in 23 minutes. Campaign #1 is re-cut as 17 VST shares + a $135 stop + a 9/29 thesis clock, CONDITIONAL pending sign-off.

Dossier is STALE (dated 9/17; Friday's council never ran). Everything below is pulled live this session (09:12-09:40 ET) or pinned to a primary source in facts.json; anything not re-verified is labeled REMEMBERED.

full market read ▾

Regime notes carried from earlier drafts are trimmed to what checks out: BoJ hiked to 1.25% on 9/18 (confirmed), Fed hiked 9/16 (confirmed), but "Monday ISM" does not exist — ISM manufacturing reports 10/1, not today — so that line is dropped from the regime rationale, and the 10y>5%/DXY/USDJPY-settle figures cited earlier remain unverified REMEMBERED numbers, not restated here as fact. Three held positions have live, machine-confirmed EXIT signals (BNO, FXY, RARE, all re-run through exitpolicy.py and limits.py this session); two hold clean on unbreached rules (PBF, FRO); SOFI holds on an unbreached but basis-flagged stop. Confidence on the three sells is HIGH on mechanism (trail/floor/catalyst rules fired, independently verified), not a claim of forecasting skill — this desk's 8-ticket sample has no demonstrated edge (95% CI spans zero) and none is claimed here.

No committee verdict for FUBO. The rows below for those names come from the mechanical engine, not from the desk. The committee is supposed to be the source of truth for holdings; where it is silent, this page now says so instead of substituting quietly.

Your positions — and what to do with eachSELL AT = the price that ends it · TAKE AT = the price that harvests it · levels update live against the engine

Position	State	Cut if	REST THIS LIMIT	What that means
🟢 PBF $77.5C 10-16	HOLD — RESIDENT SELL LIMIT $9.86 STANDS — F: WPSR referee Wed 9/23, inside the 5-session tiebreaker window — thereview Self-funded roll: net +$503 extracted while staying long the regime. Committee 9/04 wf_51d1d2e7-14e. 9/14 RULING (wf_3624c326-9b6): -7% day fully EXPLAINED — $500M exchangeable-notes offering 6:58AM (8-K 0001193125-26-389847 (CORRECTED 9/15; the previously cited 000119312526237935 DOES NOT EXIST); convert-arb shorting into tonight's pricing, hedge BUYING at pricing) + crude-led crack squeeze to ~$94.5. VST predicate fails (cause known), XLF precedent governs (no pre-referee flinch). HOLD with T1/T2 armed. \| 9/15 RE-STRIKE: T1 previously read 'closes below 72.29 (today's low)' - the 9/14 low was 70.035 and the close 70.28, so the parenthetical was wrong by 3.22% and silently converted a stabilization test into a did-not-rally test. STANDING RULE ADDED: a level struck from an intraday print must be re-struck at the close. \| 9/15 8-K re-read CUTS FOR the equity: proceeds redeem the 7.875% 2030 notes IN FULL at 103.938% and PBF is BUYING capped calls to limit dilution - a liability-management refi, not a distress raise. That is an EQUITY positive, not a +19% call positive.	—	$9.86SELL LIMIT+68% from here · +66% on premium	Momentum intact — price above the 8-EMA (PBF 76.58 > 8-EMA 76.00). Trail: 72.45 (highest close − 3.5×ATR; rises with the stock, never falls).
🔴 FXY $60C 12-18	SELL 1 / KEEP 0 — SAME SESSION — F: BoJ hiked to 1.25% 9/18 (confirmed); yen weakened anyway (58.76 -> review Second net-credit roll of the campaign (total realized ~+$358 across the series). Committee 9/10 wf_0f9a853c-060. \| 9/16 reconciliation: a desk seat reported a $1,265 basis / $1,093 mark ('10x gap'); the book is 1 ct @ $1.27 = $127 basis, live mark ~$1.10 = -13%. Seat typo, position consistent. Committee-adopted GTC $2.11 (limits.py) supersedes the ~$2.55 house-rule figure.	—	$2.11SELL LIMIT+201% from here · +66% on premium	FXY 58.28 is at/below the tightened trail 58.48 (max of chandelier 58.41 / 21-EMA 58.48) — trend broken, take the profit that remains.
🔴 RARE $17.5C 10-16 ×2	SELL 2 / KEEP 0 — SAME SESSION — F: UX111/FAYUVI approved 9/17, two days ahead of the 9/19 PDUFA the rereview TRIMMED to the approved 2x on 9/04 @0.75 (+$33 on the 3 sold — the oversize exited at a PROFIT, luck scored as luck). Deviation series #4-5 closed out flat-positive; recap still owns the pattern. Committee 9/04 wf_51d1d2e7-14e. \| 9/15: harvest band rewritten from re-rate to POP. exitforecast: 95% of E[HOLD] sits in the top decile - this is a LOTTERY STATISTIC, not a forecast. Bedford facility leg retired by regulatory act (GENGLYCOS 8/19, in-house at Bedford, shared fill/finish); ANDELYN STILL UNVERIFIED. RARE 5y beta 0.32 - FOMC is irrelevant to this binary.	—	$1.06SELL LIMIT+362% from here · +66% on premium	RARE 14.49 is at/below the tightened trail 22.11 (max of chandelier 22.11 / 21-EMA 17.96) — trend broken, take the profit that remains.
🔴 BNO $65C 04-16 ×2	SELL 2 / KEEP 0 — SAME SESSION — F: no fresh dated catalyst this session (Petroline/Russia-ban context review 2x FAIR-plus at re-priced mid (upsized from the wall-suppressed 1x). Correlated-energy check passed (~17% at basis vs 40% cap incl. Jan lottery + PBF). Corrected session 9/08 wf_a30449e3-de9. D-4 RATCHET ARMED 9/16: mark crossed +50% (9.95 vs 6.20 basis, +60%); resting floor +25% = $7.75/ct, machine-watched by the guard. A round trip to a loss is now structurally impossible on the book's anchor.	—	$6.93SELL NOWgave back below the $8.07 floor set at a +60% peak — sell AT THE MARK ($6.93); a limit at the floor sits above the market and cannot fill	GIVE-BACK FLOOR BROKEN: mark $6.93 is below the $8.07 floor set when this peaked at $9.95. Sell — this is the rule that exists so a winner cannot round-trip to nothing. Banks +12%. ▸ GIVE-BACK FLOOR ARMED: peaked +60% ($9.95)…

The next actions — the approved order sheetclose · open · gated · standing — every row is something you DO (or deliberately don't); buys appear under OPEN when one clears the gates

GATED / CONDITIONAL — not sendable until its conditions are met

BNO 2x Apr-16-2027 65C — SELL 2 / KEEP 0 at a marketable limit ~$6.45-7.00APPROVED

FXY 1x Dec-18-2026 60C — SELL 1 / KEEP 0 at a marketable limit ~$0.35-0.62APPROVED

RARE 2x Oct-16-2026 17.5C — SELL 2 / KEEP 0 at a marketable limit ~$0.22-0.26APPROVED

PBF 1x Oct-16-2026 77.5C — HOLD, resident SELL LIMIT $9.86 standsAPPROVED

FRO 40sh — HOLD, stop $41.49 close standsAPPROVED

SOFI 100sh — HOLD, stop $15.80 close standsAPPROVED

VST — Campaign #1 re-cut as 17 sh + $135.00 stop + 9/29 thesis clockCONDITIONAL

Tracking & developingeverything the scan priced that is not a play TODAY — and the one condition that would make it one · 3 priced + 17 developing · scan 2026-09-15-0932

Name	Contract	Cost	Breakeven	Gap	What would make it a play
AVGO	400.0 10-30 · 45d	$367	+16%	1.14	clears on its own numbers — chief did not select it today
CRWD	255.0 10-16 · 31d	$864	+14%	1.08	clears on its own numbers — chief did not select it today
CELH	27.5 12-18 · 94d	$415	+11%	0.65	our tail is NARROWER than the market's (0.65) — needs the market to price it tighter
AMD	— not priced	—	p90 +18%	High	did not clear (NEG_MEDIAN)
APP	— not priced	—	p90 +12%	High	did not clear (SCREEN_OTHER)
ARKK	— not priced	—	p90 +14%	High	base rate is fine (win 61%, p90 +14%) but no contract in the budget window cleared the strike/spread/DTE gates — the IDEA is live, the EXPRESSION is not
ARM	— not priced	—	p90 +20%	High	win rate 48% is under the bar — needs a better 20-day base rate
BNO	— not priced	—	p90 +30%	High	base rate is fine (win 66%, p90 +30%) but no contract in the budget window cleared the strike/spread/DTE gates — the IDEA is live, the EXPRESSION is not
BOIL	— not priced	—	p90 +18%	High	did not clear (SCREEN_OTHER)
COIN	— not priced	—	p90 +43%	High	win rate 48% is under the bar — needs a better 20-day base rate
COPX	— not priced	—	p90 +16%	High	base rate is fine (win 60%, p90 +16%) but no contract in the budget window cleared the strike/spread/DTE gates — the IDEA is live, the EXPRESSION is not
CVNA	— not priced	—	p90 +18%	High	win rate 44% is under the bar — needs a better 20-day base rate
DBA	— not priced	—	p90 +5%	High	did not clear (SCREEN_OTHER)
DBC	— not priced	—	p90 +11%	High	base rate is fine (win 57%, p90 +11%) but no contract in the budget window cleared the strike/spread/DTE gates — the IDEA is live, the EXPRESSION is not
DKNG	— not priced	—	p90 +17%	High	win rate 50% is under the bar — needs a better 20-day base rate
EEM	— not priced	—	p90 +9%	High	base rate is fine (win 64%, p90 +9%) but no contract in the budget window cleared the strike/spread/DTE gates — the IDEA is live, the EXPRESSION is not
EFA	— not priced	—	p90 +6%	High	did not clear (SCREEN_OTHER)
ERX	— not priced	—	p90 +11%	High	base rate is fine (win 57%, p90 +11%) but no contract in the budget window cleared the strike/spread/DTE gates — the IDEA is live, the EXPRESSION is not
EWZ	— not priced	—	p90 +9%	High	base rate is fine (win 60%, p90 +9%) but no contract in the budget window cleared the strike/spread/DTE gates — the IDEA is live, the EXPRESSION is not
FNGU	— not priced	—	p90 +15%	High	did not clear (SCREEN_OTHER)

Today's portfolio changesthe whole day in four verbs — everything else is drill-down

SELL

sell the FXY $60C 12-18

+$70 to cash · FXY 58.28 is at/below the tightened trail 58.48 (max of chandelier 58.41 / 21-EMA 58.48) — trend broken, take

SELL

sell all 2 RARE $17.5C 10-16

+$50 to cash · RARE 14.49 is at/below the tightened trail 22.11 (max of chandelier 22.11 / 21-EMA 17.96) — trend broken, take

SELL

sell all 2 BNO $65C 04-16

+$1,400 to cash · GIVE-BACK FLOOR BROKEN: mark $7.00 is below the $8.07 floor set when this peaked at $9.95. Sell — this is the

Nothing else changes: PBF $77.5C 10-16 (RUN)

The portfolio~$23,963 live · what today's changes do to it

Cash75%

Options9%

FRO9%

SOFI7%

FUBO0%

After today's changes: cash $18,086 → $19,606 (75% → 82%) · options premium reduced · income +$0

Conditions & metricsmarket climate · sector rotation · risk panel · what the desk expects, sealed

S&P 500

+1%

index

Nasdaq

+1%

index

Semis

+2%

index

VIX

+1%

level 15

💸 Money flowIN → Semis · Technology · Health careOUT → Real estate · Utilities · Homebuilders

Portfolio risk — read this before any trade idea

Account~$23,953

Cash$18,086

Largest nameFRO ~9%

Option premium at risk$2,089

🏁 Tournament: 7.8 mo left · EARLY game · standing LIVE LEADERBOARD (logged 2026-09-10, 11d ago): leader $130,000 / $92,000 / $87,000 · stance: TARGET CHASE

What the desk expects, in its own frozen numbers sealed before the outcome, scored at the horizon

The meeting — how the desk got herewhat was argued, what got cut and why, what is still armed

Approved, not a trade: MU Jan-15-2027 1330C (expired conditional ticket) — CANCEL — orders_state.json shows the 9/21 same-session entry gate lapsed unfilled (state=expired). Re-priced live today the identical strike costs $60.79/ct = 25.3% of the account, 1.7x the $3,619 cap — cannot be revived at this strike per Plan v4 B4.

Approved, not a trade: MU Jan-15-2027 — new conditional entry, strike TBD by live cap/tail test — No live strike clears STRUCTURE today: the cheapest cap-fitting strike (1470C, $3,476 mid) needs +45.3% to break even, beyond the live analog's own +21.5% p90. Catalyst re-pinned today (MU.earnings.q4_2026, 9/30 AMC). Fires only if a future pull finds a strike <=$3,619 with breakeven inside the live p90 and spread <=10%.

Approved, not a trade: Order hygiene — reconfirm or cancel every resident order today — orders_state.json shows every resident order (BNO, FXY, RARE, PBF, FRO, SOFI) 4+ sessions unconfirmed after Friday's dead night run and an un-pinged weekend. This broker expires sell orders daily — treat nothing as resting until confirmed at the open; the full re-enter sheet is in orders[].

Run health & corrections: 9/21: 13 of 13 (speed run on live tools; dossier stale — Friday's night run died). Chief converged on attempt 2/3; DA returned 22 targets. Three same-session exits APPROVED as orders; PBF/FRO/SOFI hold on unbreached rules; zero option originations (a STRUCTURE zero: MU's cap-fitting strike needs +45%; VST's option tail fell to 0.67 REJECT). Campaign #1 re-cut under the 9/18 policy-flow class: 17 VST shares, stop 135, thesis clock 9/29 — CONDITIONAL on owner sign-off.

Rejected today — ideas the committee killedthe skeptics' work · a good kill is worth as much as a good pick

Jan-15-2027 150C option rejected on two independent grounds: (1) it is the wrong vehicle class for a policy-flow catalyst under the 9/18 CONSTITUTION addendum, which mandates shares+stop; (2) its own live p90 tail ratio fell to 0.67, below the 0.70 REJECT floor, in the 23 minutes between this session's two pulls.

No live Jan-15-2027 strike within the $3,619 cap has a breakeven inside the analog's own +21.5% p90; the cheapest cap-fitting strike (1470C) needs +45.3%.

Greenland rare-earth deal already priced 34% higher since 9/18; first ore 2028-29; this morning's 27% Stocktwits sentiment spike is attention, not new information.

No multi-x payoff path on UUP's single-digit realized vol at 30-45 DTE ATM; the DXY>101 trigger is incoherent (DXY already trades below the level it's meant to fail to hold); it is the same USD-down thesis already stopping out in FXY at -50% the same morning.

9/15 scan self-contradicts live prices (AVGO spot already below its own 'rest-lower' level; CRWD's rest level sits under the desk's own trend-kill line) and neither has a dated catalyst — fails STRUCTURE before the tail ratio is even relevant.

Tail ratio 0.654, below the 0.70 REJECT floor — measured-negative-alpha zone stays closed per the constitution.

Standing calls & watchestriggers armed — nothing is spent until they fire

Nothing armed — today's trades are above.

⚠ When: BNO's give-back is accelerating faster than this brief can be read. — keep size small until it clears.

🩺 validator: 0 numeric conflict(s) caught · 0 expired action(s) flagged · decision journal 150 record(s) (101 reconstructed)

What the committee actually saiddesk views · findings · guardrails · week ahead · blind spots · look-back

Seventeen seats wrote this and the page threw it away every block below was computed on every run since this page existed, rendered into HTML, and never placed in the document

The day — and when you get calledevery row names the command that produces it

When	What runs	What you get	Your move
16:05 prev. session	committee.lean.workflow.js — 6 seats, ~30 min	Tomorrow’s thesis, contract, size and ladder. Not sendable limits — quotes after the close are closing marks.	Nothing. Read it here in the morning.
09:25 pre-open	preopen.py	Every order in the brief re-priced against live NBBO. One verdict each: SEND / AMEND / REST LOWER / STAND DOWN, with the limit and the ceiling.	This is the call sheet. It is the only place a price becomes an order.
09:30–09:45	—	—	Place what 09:25 confirmed. Limit at the mid, never the ask. If it has not filled in ~15 minutes, let it go.
15:00	afternoon.py	Order hygiene, exit sweep against live marks, overnight event risk. After 16:00 the next chance to act is 09:30 tomorrow.	Cancel or confirm anything resting. Act on any red row.
Fri 16:05	weekend.py	Forecast scoring, interval calibration, position projection, attribution.	Nothing to trade. This is the record that tells you whether any of it works.

What has to pass before any of this publishes

Nothing publishes unless these pass. preflight.py (invariants I-1…I-8, account reconciliation, phantom positions), test_contracts.py (9 assertions, each one a defect that already shipped), test_coverage.py (every committee section reaches this page), wiring.py --strict (dead calls, orphaned blocks, live feed probe) — executed by publish_gate.py; tests/test_gates_wired.py asserts this claim matches the code on every build.
The feed lags up to ~15 minutes on the free tier. On 2026-08-21 a contract walked $7.00 → $9.06 across five pulls inside 40 minutes and a give-back floor was reported breached that was never breached. Any level within ~$0.40 of a trigger is undecidable and is not published as a fact.
The book moves on reported fills only. An approved ticket is not a position. Bases are reconciled against broker screenshots — every exit level is derived from basis, so a wrong basis makes every level wrong.
Exit levels are option prices, not underlying prices. A resting GTC limit fills while you sleep; an underlying trigger requires you to be watching, which is why profits kept slipping away.
No trade is a real answer. If nothing clears, the order file ships empty rather than manufacturing a ticket.

What the desks found

BNO floor conflict resolved by executing the actual code, not reading it: exitpolicy.py's wired give-back-floor state machine and limits.py's independent mirror both compute $8.07 (peak-scaled, basis x (1+peak_gain x KEEP_FRAC)) off the recorded $9.95/+60% peak; guard_sync.py's $7.75 is a flat, non-peak-scaled formula that only populates the passport's display field and drives no exit decision. $8.07 governs — ratified via direct execution of exitpolicy.evaluate() and limits.py this session, contradicting several earlier seats' 'the owner-signed $7.75 governs' claim.
VST's electrons/PJM catalyst is a policy-flow regulatory milestone (FERC ruling deadline 9/29) under CONSTITUTION.md's 9/18 addendum ('the policy-flow catalyst class'), whose approved vehicle is shares+stop, not an option expiry. Every prior seat this morning (Macro Regime, Structured Plays, Fundamental Verdicts, the Devil's Advocate, and the Risk Officer) proposed the Jan-15-2027 150C option and none caught the vehicle mismatch. Corrected here.
MU's original conditional ticket (1330C, catalyst properly pinned, conditions properly written 9/17) expired unfilled today per orders_state.json. Re-pricing the identical strike live now costs $60.79/ct — 25% of the account, 1.7x the cap. No strike within the cap has a breakeven inside the live analog's own p90 (+21.5%): the cheapest cap-fitting strike (1470C, $3,476) needs +45.3%. Cancelled; a fresh conditional ticket is staged but has no live strike that clears its own gate as of this pull.
Preflight fixes applied: MU.earnings.q4_2026 and PJM.RBP.ferc_ruling_deadline both re-pinned today via facts.py (pinned_at=2026-09-21), satisfying the 'catalyst must be pinned today' rule for both the MU conditional order and the VST shares order; the MU order's conditions[] now states its gating rule verbatim.
VST's own option tail ratio (live p90) moved from 0.83 to 0.67 across two pulls 23 minutes apart (09:12 and 09:35 ET) — a reminder that a single post-open snapshot is noisy and should not be treated as a stable input on its own.
SOFI's basis is unreconciled: sell_rules.json's guard block carries $26.32 (a 55% markup on the task's $16.96), and the passport itself flags 'basis missing from the desk files as of 9/15.' No action changes today (no stop breach either reading), but this needs a broker-statement pin before it silently misprices a future risk check — third consecutive session with this flag.
Order hygiene: every resident order in orders_state.json (BNO, FXY, RARE, PBF, FRO, SOFI) is 4+ sessions unconfirmed after Friday's dead night run and an un-pinged weekend. This broker expires sell orders daily — treat nothing as resting until confirmed at the open.
Leaderboard bar ($130k) is 11 days stale (logged 9/10); tournament.py's 24.3%/mo required rate is computed on that stale bar and must not be used to size or justify any trade today — the D-1 weekly re-log is owed.
Earlier drafts cited 'Monday ISM' as a pending catalyst for the growth axis; ISM manufacturing reports on the first business day of the month (10/1), not today — dropped from the regime rationale.

Guardrails the desk set for itself

No trades executed in chat — this brief is analysis/orders for the governed process; the owner/broker executes.
Remembered numbers do not enter tickets (Plan v4 B4) — every price/date above was pulled or pinned this session (chain.py, implied.py, ta.py, exitpolicy.py, limits.py, facts.json), timestamped 09:12-09:40 ET 9/21.
Hard cash floor $3,619 (tournament.py) is inviolable; no order above touches it — cash after all three sells plus the conditional VST buy stays well above $15,000.
Account permissions: long shares, single long options, covered calls, cash-secured puts only — no multi-leg, no shorting, no naked writing. Every order above complies.
This desk has 8 option tickets ever, mean -21.5%, 95% CI [-60%,+17%] — spans zero. No edge is claimed on any SELL or HOLD above; the mechanism (trail/floor/catalyst resolution) is what's asserted, not forecasting skill.
'We need 7.6x' is forbidden as a reason to size any single trade — VST's campaign sizing comes from the D-6 probation ladder (8-10% of account), not from the gap to the stale leaderboard bar.

9/23 Wed: PBF WPSR — dated referee for the crack thesis; pre-commit the post-print exit order before the print (the desk's own PLTR lesson).

9/28 ~: FRO combined dividend ($136.40) pays.

9/29 Mon: FERC ruling deadline on PJM ER26-3380 — VST's thesis clock.

9/30 Wed: MU FQ4 earnings, AMC — Jan expiry crosses it cleanly, Oct/Nov/Dec do not. Also: PJM RBP bid window opens; Russia diesel-ban decision due.

10/1 Thu: ISM manufacturing print — the actual growth-axis data point (not 'Monday' as earlier drafts said).

~12/2: PJM RBP real clearing — the true marginal price-setter for the electrons thesis.

Owed today: D-1 leaderboard re-log (11 days stale); reconfirm/cancel every resident order per the order-hygiene sheet above.

What this page cannot see

Quotes are Alpaca's indicative feed and can lag ~15 minutes; FXY's live bid printed $0.00 this session, which may be a stale/indicative artifact rather than a real zero-bid market — treat any FXY fill below the ask with extra caution. No real-time options-flow, dark-pool, or order-book-depth data. No direct FERC docket monitoring beyond the pinned 9/29 deadline — no confirmation the ruling hasn't already moved intraday. No independent verification of the Fed's 10y>5%, DXY, or USDJPY-settle figures cited in earlier drafts — those remain REMEMBERED and were not re-pulled this session. No broker-side confirmation that any resident order has actually been cancelled or filled; that must be checked directly in the account, not inferred from this brief.

Position passports & detailper-contract rules, live marks, tap-to-expand charts

🟢 PBF $77.5C 10-16RUN — trail risingpassport ▾

MissionDownstream products/refining margin — the ceasefire-proof regime (record diesel crack ~$101, distillates lowest-for-season since 1951, >30% Russian refining capacity impaired). Rolled up from the banked 67.5C.

Wrong ifKILL (unchanged): 3rd consecutive PRODUCTS build AND crack <$80 -> same-session exit; referee Wed 9/16 WPSR. TRIPWIRE T1 (armed 9/14): PBF CLOSES Tue 9/15 below 70.03 (the ACTUAL 9/14 low; the 72.29 figure was wrong — real low 70.035, close 70.28, so as-written T1 would fire on any flat day) = the notes-pricing stabilization failed -> EXIT same session, marketable limit walking from mid. TRIPWIRE T2 (closes the known gap): diesel crack settles <$90 TWO consecutive settles = crude-led compression -> mandatory VST-framework vehicle review, default EXIT next session unless committee affirms in writing. | WPSR 9/16 (wk 9/11): distillate +1.585M = PRODUCTS BUILD #3 -> countdown 3-of-3 EXHAUSTED; crack at the pinned vendor $106.44 (9/10 daily; weekly avg ~$102) >= $80 -> KILL DID NOT FIRE. From here the kill is armed on the crack alone: any EIA ULSD NYH minus WTI settle < $80 = same-session exit.

Winning ifInto the 9/30-10/1 Russia diesel-ban re-adjudication; analog p90 (+41.7% underlying) pays ~4.6x on this leg.

Lease endsexpiry 2026-10-16

Russia ban lapsing ~9/30; ORCL-class demand shock; crack complex normalizing.

analysis: mark $5.88 · rent ~$90/wk of time decay · IV 78% · 25d left · P&L -6$

🔴 FXY $60C 12-18SELL — trail brokenpassport ▾

MissionBoJ 9/18 surprise-branch convexity at lottery cost, financed by the rolled-down 57C.

Wrong ifSTOP: BoJ hold + USDJPY back through 157 -> same-session exit; max loss $127.

Winning ifInto the BoJ event pop; GTC ~2x ($2.55) reasonable per house rule.

Lease endsexpiry 2026-12-18

analysis: mark $0.7 · rent ~$6/wk of time decay · IV 10% · 88d left · P&L -57$

🔴 RARE $17.5C 10-16 ×2SELL — trail brokenpassport ▾

MissionCrashed-PDUFA binary: 9/02 crash was a DIFFERENT program's trial miss (Angelman ASO) vs the UX111 AAV BLA; CRL verified CMC-only at primary; runway $436M vs ~$97M/qtr.

Wrong ifSTOP pre-PDUFA: any financing filing (ATM/S-1) or evidence FDA re-cited the facility = exit same session. CRL #2 on 9/19 = expires worthless; that branch is priced.

Winning ifREWRITTEN 9/15 - the old '$20-22 re-rate shelf (4-7x)' is DELETED as 3-5x too generous. PDUFA SEPT 19 and a PDUFA date is a CEILING (three dated 2026 instances) - FDA can act ANY day this week, so this exit is RESIDENT every session. Nearest comparable (RARE's own DTX401, 8/19, first-in-disease + PRV) printed ~+6% AH / ~+9% next session. HONEST BASE CASE on approval: +15% to +35% first session = RARE $15.65-18.38. The 17.5 strike needs +28.5% MERELY TO REACH PARITY, so in the base case the call finishes between worthless and roughly its current mark. The 4-7x lives ENTIRELY in the squeeze tail past +50% (21.32% of float short, 8.15 days to cover is the only mechanism that gets there). ACTION ON APPROVAL: SELL BOTH same session into the print at ANY price - there is no shelf to wait for.

Lease endsexpiry 2026-10-16

Financing filing; sum-of-parts showing Angelman carried $4-6+ of the pre-crash NPV.

analysis: mark $0.23 · rent ~$19/wk of time decay · IV 69% · 25d left · P&L -82$

🔴 BNO $65C 04-16 ×2SELL — trail brokenpassport ▾

MissionCrude back-of-curve repricing: 2027 strip ~$60 prices full normalization against a war that graduated to flow-path targeting; Iran exports -48%, OPEC+ zero response.

Wrong ifKILLS: war-risk hull premia <3% OR 3rd consecutive distillate build WITH crack <$80 -> same-session close, salvage remaining premium. First referee: WPSR Thu 9/10 ~12:00. Max loss $1,240. | WPSR 9/16 (wk 9/11): distillate +1.585M = PRODUCTS BUILD #3 -> countdown 3-of-3 EXHAUSTED; crack at the pinned vendor $106.44 (9/10 daily; weekly avg ~$102) >= $80 -> KILL DID NOT FIRE. From here the kill is armed on the crack alone: any EIA ULSD NYH minus WTI settle < $80 = same-session exit.

Winning ifInto the 9/30 Russia-ban re-adjudication and 10/4 OPEC+ at BNO ~$75-80 (~2-2.5x w/ vol value; p90 path 5.7x); a bypass-hit spike = SELL INTO IT with IV, never wait for intrinsic.

Lease endsexpiry 2027-04-16

Long-dated crude calls showing up on retail boards (crowding tell); de-escalation unwinding the whole crude complex.

analysis: mark $7.07 · rent ~$34/wk of time decay · IV 49% · 207d left · P&L +174$

Per-contract detail live marks, per-contract rules, tap any row for its chart

Cash$18,086

Total~$23,977

RIDE = keep · CUT = sell to free cash. Tap any position for its chart + the desk's take.

SOFI SoFi100 sh · +1% today · -0% 3mo · $1,710

HOLD — stop $15.80 close standstap ▾

F: fundamentals SUPPORTS (40% YoY revenue growth, raised FY26 guidance) — no catalyst pending. T: live $17.24-17.46, no breach. X: exitpolicy.py flags EXIT on its generic trail, but the passport's written provisional stop ($15.80) governs and is unbreached; fl_movers.py's 'drifting, trim' read is not a rule-based trigger and is rejected. FLAG (not a kill): guard-block basis $26.32 vs. the task's $16.96 is unreconciled — third session running.

Income / hedge overlay💵 Covered call: sell 1× SOFI 2026-10-23 $19 call for ~$0.31 = ~$31 premium in your pocket. ~21%/yr on the shares; 2% downside cushion. If it's called away at $19 you still book +11% on the stock.

Technicalsdowntrend (below both 50 & 200-day); MACD falling (momentum rolling over); RSI 45 (neutral).

FUBO FuboTV0.33 sh · +2% today · +16% 3mo · $3

HOLDtap ▾

Still above its 50-day trend but momentum's cooling. Keep it on a short leash.

red line = the level that flips the plan · dot = price now

Technicalsabove the 50-day but below the 200 — a bounce, not a confirmed trend; MACD falling (momentum rolling over); RSI 47 (neutral).

NoteMechanical read (moving-average trend only) — the desk has not reviewed this name yet, so this is a placeholder, not a committee verdict.

PBF $77.5 call · exp 2026-10-161× · underlying $76.77 -1% today · · paid $594

HOLD — resident SELL LIMIT $9.86 standstap ▾

F: WPSR referee Wed 9/23, inside the 5-session tiebreaker window — the dated referee overrules any measurement read until then. T: live $77.16, mid-channel. X: exitpolicy.py live-verified RUN, trail $72.44, momentum intact. All three converge on hold.

Technicalsclean uptrend (20>50>200-day stacked); MACD falling (momentum rolling over); RSI 57 (neutral).

FRO FRO40 sh · -0% today · +23% 3mo · $2,054

HOLD — stop $41.49 close standstap ▾

F: ex-div banked ($3.41, pays ~9/28); management flagged softer forward TCEs, unsized. T: live $51.54, ~19% above stop, extended (RSI 62, ta.py flags 'wait for a pullback'). X: exitpolicy.py's own tighter generic trail (50.49) is informational only — the passport's written stop ($41.49) governs this share position and is unbreached.

Technicalsclean uptrend (20>50>200-day stacked); MACD rising (momentum building); RSI 68 (neutral).

FXY $60 call · exp 2026-12-181× · underlying $58.26 -0% today · · paid $127

SELL 1 / KEEP 0 — same sessiontap ▾

F: BoJ hiked to 1.25% 9/18 (confirmed); yen weakened anyway (58.76 -> 58.28). T: live 58.28, market wide (bid $0.00/ask $1.23). X: exitpolicy.py live-verified EXIT — trail 58.48 breached, independent of the still-unsettled Branch-A USDJPY leg. All three converge; -50% and decaying further.

Technicalsuptrend (above 50 & 200-day); MACD falling (momentum rolling over); RSI 49 (neutral).

RARE $17.5 call · exp 2026-10-162× · underlying $14.46 -0% today · · paid $128

SELL 2 / KEEP 0 — same sessiontap ▾

F: UX111/FAYUVI approved 9/17, two days ahead of the 9/19 PDUFA the resident order was explicitly holding through — condition satisfied/overtaken. T: live 14.55, RSI 20 oversold. X: exitpolicy.py live-verified EXIT, trend broken. All three converge; resident $1.30 limit (5x the $0.25 mid) will not fill.

Technicalsdowntrend (below both 50 & 200-day); MACD falling (momentum rolling over); oversold (RSI 28).

BNO $65 call · exp 2027-04-162× · underlying $59.18 -2% today · · paid $1,240

SELL 2 / KEEP 0 — same sessiontap ▾

F: no fresh dated catalyst this session (Petroline/Russia-ban context is dossier-era). T: underlying $59.26, momentum rolling over; option mid $7.01 (bid $6.43/ask $7.59), decaying intraday ($7.77 at 09:12 -> $7.12 at 09:35 -> $7.01 mid now). X: exitpolicy.py AND limits.py, both re-run live this session, converge on floor $8.07 (peak-scaled off the $9.95/+60% peak) — broken. guard_sync.py's stored $7.75 is a flat, mismatched display-generator formula, verified NOT wired to any exit decision. All three lenses agree: sell, bank the gain.

Technicalsclean uptrend (20>50>200-day stacked); MACD falling (momentum rolling over); RSI 58 (neutral).

A command center for a fake-money school competition — live market data + a multi-desk committee's reasoning, refreshed when the desks meet. Game strategy, not investment advice, and not a prediction. Verdicts are calibrated bets with stated confidence; what actually hits is variance. Confirm every fill in thinkorswim.